Fox Calls For Menendez

Fox is calling the NJ race for Bob Menendez. That’s not unexpected, but there had been hopes that Kean would be able to pull it off.

Right now it looks like undecideds are breaking towards the Democrats — that’s very bad news for the Republicans in tight races.

On the other hand, so far all the races are proceeding along the lines one would have expected. Kean was a long shot, and Santorum was long predicted to be dead meat. The real test will be the VA race — if Webb pulls ahead, the Democrats might end up in control of the Senate.

This is still going to be a nail biter…

SANTORUM OUT

The networks are calling the Pennsylvania race for Bob Casey, Jr.

That’s a shame, as Rick Santorum has been a great public servant and a strong voice for the voiceless across the world. This is a win based on partisanship and nothing but, and this has been a loss for the people of Pennsylvania and the country as a whole.

Quick Senate Updates

Maryland: Word on the street is that there is heavy amounts of African-American crossover voting for Michael Steele. If Steele wins between 30-35% of the African-American vote in that state, he’s almost sure to win. This is a race to watch, as it could shift the balance for the Senate.

Montana: Turnout is supposed to be absolutely ridiculous — which is a good thing for embattled Senator Conrad Burns. Montana is a very conservative state, and while Democrats have made inroads at the local level, it’s only because they’ve fielded conservative candidates. Tester has run a strong campaign, but I’m in the camp that says that Montana residents are going to come back home to the GOP.

UPDATE: 6:64PM Central
Virginia: This one is going to be down to the wire. I’m watching the results come, and Webb is pulling just slightly ahead of Allen. However, that’s to be expected given that the larger urban areas will be the first to get counted. If Allen has enough turnout in the western and southern parts of the state he can win — if not, he’ll be in trouble.

UPDATE: 7:00PM Central
Virginia: The race has tightened again, with Webb ahead only by a small fraction. Because of the large amount of absentee votes in that race, it could be a long time before we have a definitive answer in that race.

Florida: Unsurprisingly, Katharine Harris is going down in flames. There’s a real shocker…

UPDATE: 7:15PM Central
Virginia: The talking heads on Fox are saying that Allen should have run a more ideologically-based campaign. That’s true, although I think he should have run a smarter campaign in general. Allen seems like he may just barely pull ahead, but this race should never have been this close. One certain loser is Allen’s aspirations for 2008 — after this, he’s damaged goods. He’d better hope that he keeps his seat.

National Exit Poll Leaks

There have been a few leaks of national exit poll data — no surprise there. So far, it doesn’t look good for the GOP. The Corner has the numbers, although NRO is having some serious technical difficulties.

Exit polls are unreliable and tend to favor the Democrats. We’ve already been warned about this — so all this says is what one particularly unreliable datapoint is saying. Everything is still in play, and it’s far too premature for the fat lady to start doing her warmups.

UPDATE: “Anything within 7 is probably a dead heat” — that seems about right to me. All these races are in play, and the exit polls aren’t worth anything. The fat lady is still firmly in her green room…

UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal (AKA the Mystery Pollster) has a good piece on why exit polling is so inaccurate.

MN-1 Looking Good For GOP

Word is that the Gutknecht/Walz race is not shaping out to be as close as the prognosticators had it. Now, keep in mind that early reports like the ones I’m hearing are unreliable, so anything can change, but it looks like my predictions that the race won’t be that close are roughly on track.

MN-1 is becoming less reliably conservative, but a hotbed of liberalism it’s not. It’s difficult to sample a House race, and it’s even more difficult to sample a House race in a quite heterogeneous district spread out over a wide geographical area like MN-1 (which basically encompasses Southern Minnesota). There are a lot of conservative rural voters who aren’t likely to answer pollster’s phone calls but vote as a matter of obligation.

Gutknecht was supposed to be running last election cycle as well, and I remember some dire predictions for him in 2002. The adage to remember here is to always keep in mind that incumbency is a powerful thing, especially in a rural district like the First.

We’ll see if those rumors continue to play out as the night goes on…

UPDATE: Just in case, if you’re a Gutknecht voter, don’t forget to vote. It could still be close, and it’s always better to be safe than sorry.

What Do They Stand For?

Michael Kinsley takes a look at the Democratic platform and finds their “New Direction” rather lacking. The Democrats’ 31-page manifesto is the usual bunch of mealy-mouthed platitudes and not even half-assed policies that represents the complete disconnect between Democrats and actual consideration of policy issues. As Kinsley, who is hardly a member of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, notes:

The Democrats promise “security, prosperity and opportunity” in “diverse, safe and vibrant communities”. They will “protect Americans, secure our borders, and restore our position of international leadership” through “homeland, energy, and diplomatic strategies”. And we’re only up to page three.

It’s all platitudes. Unlike the Contract with America in 1994, the Democrats don’t really have a sense of policy because they’re not running on policy. They’re running on little more than a sense of abject hatred for the opposition. It isn’t about taxes or preserving Social Security, it’s about partisanship. The polls consistently show that Democratic voters are motivated less by love for their candidates than hatred for Republicans. Who cares about policy when you’re running a campaign fueled by vindictiveness?

The problem is that the Democrats did the same thing in 2002 and 2004, and it caused them to lose. Even if the Democrats win today, it won’t be by margins any larger than are traditional in a six-year midterm. There’s no mandate for the Democrats, although their inflated egos will likely interpret it as such.

A Democratic takeover will lead to two years of partisan attacks against sitting officials, meaningless harassments, baseless charges, and continual witch-hunts. It will be a travesty, the only good result of which will be the Congress unable to do anything of substance. Meanwhile, our enemies will still be plotting, Social Security will continue towards collapse, and other key policy issues will go unconsidered.

The silver lining in that crowd is that the American electorate can’t stand sore winners, and the effect of yet another two years of childish partisanship could very well be an electoral spanking on a truly massive scale. When all the Democrats stand for is a veneer of platitudes covering a seething hatred, even if they get the power they so desperately want, they’re likely to use it to shoot themselves in the foot.

Election Day Coverage

As is traditional, I’ll be doing the usual Election Day live-blogging. Those of you in the Twin Cities can catch the Northern Alliance Radio Network on AM 1280 The Patriot this evening for live election coverage. Those of you who can’t get that station can also listen in on the live web stream.

So far, it’s looking good for the Republicans in the Senate. There was a probably false poll showing Santorum within 4 of Casey in PA — that poll is almost certainly inaccurate, but I’ve heard some internals that show a dramatic tightening of that race. Steele is still very much in the game, depending on how well he can motivate the African-American vote. Talent’s race in MO is going to be one to watch, as that one is on the cusp and could provide an edge to the Democrats.

The House will likely flip Democratic, but not by much. As bad as having the Democrats in charge in even a small way will be, two years of Speaker Pelosi will be enough to guarantee a GOP blowout in 2008. That is, of course, assuming that someone doesn’t pull a Brutus with her and ensure she’s out of the picture.

In Minnesota, I’m hoping that Pawlenty pulls through. Mike Hatch would be a disaster for this state, as Lileks puts it, he’s a mean, small man. Minnesota deserves better than that schlub. Still, I think enough Minnesota voters know who Pawlenty is and know who Mike Hatch is to see the obvious, especially in outstate and the metro. In my district, John Kline will beat Colleen Rowley like a rented mule. It won’t even be close. Rowley is an incredibly poor candidate who doesn’t have the brains to pull off her patronizing attitude. Watching the two of them debate was like watching Mike Tyson box Woody Allen — there’s just no contest.

The transportation amendment will go down, I hope. It’s a good idea in theory, but there’s no reason why what should be a statutory change needs to be made as a constitutional amendment. Furthermore, we don’t need any more funding for light rail. Either it succeeds on its own merits or it doesn’t. I’m not opposed to the idea of light rail, but not so big a fan of it that I’m willing to see more money sunk into a system that can’t sustain itself over the long term. The transportation amendment would be a sop to the metro area, while outstate Minnesota would end up subsidizing metro-area transit. Local problems need local solutions, and making Worthington and Waseca pay for transportation fixes to the Crosstown or more light rail between Minneapolis and St. Paul is simply a misallocation of dollars. Even though such a light-rail system would be nice personally, I don’t feel the need to force others to pay for it.

More updates as the day goes on.

UPDATE: For all those Republicans worried about today’s results, a little blast from the past:

The GOP Gains Ground

Multiple polls are now showing that the GOP is getting a substantial last-minute push. Gallup, ABC, and Pew all have the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot question down to the single digits. Furthermore, Ed Morrissey has delved into the internals of the Pew poll and found that the GOP is regaining their strength in core demographic areas. The Democrats are once again failing to do much more than preach to the choir.

Part of it is certainly due to John Kerry’s idiotic comments bringing many fence-sitting GOP voters back into the fold. There’s nothing that is more effective than reminding GOP-allied voters exactly why they don’t like the Democrats. Given the choice between going with a flawed Republican Party and a Democratic Party led by such “notables” as John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi, Republican voters aren’t going to cut off their noses to spite their face.

I’d also argue that many of the moderates who have been looking at the Democrats as a viable alternative are facing the same question: can the Democrats be trusted to do any better? The reason why 1994 was such a blowout was because the Republicans had made themselves a viable alternative. It’s one thing to be mad at the status quo. It’s another thing to be able to focus that anger into constructive political activity. The Democrats’ core problem is that they are running based on their anger rather than the voter’s anger. The average voter is disappointed with Bush, but the idea that merely tying a candidate to the President is enough to defeat them is not workable. For one, 40% of the electorate approves of the President. If at least 10% don’t care, then the attack is pointless. Local elections are still largely defined by local and not national issues, so the entire thrust of the Democrats’ campaign is going in an entirely irrelevant direction.

The GOP is gaining back ground that it lost. The big question is whether those gains will be sufficient to stem the bleeding. As far as the House is concerned, it seems unlikely. The Democrats are set to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 seats. The Republicans aren’t hopeless, but it’s going to be difficult to defend that much territory. The Senate seems more likely to stay in Republican hands, but a 50-50 split isn’t unlikely either. There’s no doubt that the GOP is going to lose Senate seats, it’s just a question of how many.

The Democrats are once again doing all that they can to seize defeat from the jaws of victory, after weeks of Republican missteps. Still, that doesn’t mean that it won’t be perilously close, which is why turnout is going to be critical tomorrow. If GOP voters are more motivated than they were, that means that the Democrats may have to content themselves with no more than the typical midterm gains rather than the blowout that their partisans were hoping to have.

Minnesota Poll Shows Pawlenty Ahead

OK, so it doesn’t, but that’s a fair reading of the latest Minnesota Poll which shows Hatch ahead of Pawlenty by 45-40 with a 3.2% MOE. The Minnesota Poll is always as accurate as a DFL push-poll would be, and undercounting Republican strength by 5-10% is not only possible, but almost a certainty when dealing with the Star-Tribune‘s infamously inaccurate polling.

Hatch’s meltdown (calling a reporter who dared to ask a difficult question a “Republican whore”) only further cements the idea that Hatch is a lose cannon, in comparison to Pawlenty’s “Minnesota nice” reputation. Hatch’s running mate, Judi Dutcher was caught not knowing a thing about the ethanol-based E85 fuel which is a major issue for Minnesota agriculture, which shows just how terminally unprepared she is. Most of Hatch’s support (30%) comes from hardcore DFL partisans who hate Tim Pawlenty because of the “R” behind his name. 14% of Hatch supporters are swayable, and I’m guessing that because of the partisan nature of the Minnesota Poll, those numbers are a lot bigger than the poll indicates.

Mike Hatch has shown his true colors, which is not going to help him with Minnesota voters. When it comes down to actually going into the precinct and voting, Minnesota voters are going to look back at the last four years in which Minnesota’s economy has done well and consider which candidate reflects the values of this state best, and vote for Pawlenty. Hatch is a lose cannon who deserves to lose. We’ve already had one thin-skinned governor with Ventura, the last thing we need is someone with the same temperament who doesn’t look as good in a feather boa. The fact that Hatch is within the MOE in the most biased poll in the country only shows how badly he’s likely to do.

Down To The Wire

The national Senate outlook just keeps changing in the final sprint to the finish line. Conrad Burns is neck-and-neck with Jon Tester in Montana. Mason-Dixon has Lincoln Chaffee just ahead of Whitehouse in Rhode Island — which could be a major statistical outlier, or Mason-Dixon could be picking up on something the others aren’t. Mason-Dixon also has Bob Corker up by 12 points, which suggests that either Mason-Dixon is systematically oversampling Republicans or the other polls are undersampling them.

Right now, it looks like the Republicans will lose Ohio and Pennsylvania. Neither DeWine nor Santorum are even close to victory. The loss of Santorum is especially troubling — when it comes to issues such as fighting AIDS in Africa, Santorum has been one of this nation’s strongest voices. To have him lose, especially to a schlub like Bob Casey, Jr., is a tragedy.

Allen is neck-and-neck with Jim Webb, which shouldn’t have happened. Allen had all the advantages going in, but the VA race has become one of the dirtiest races in the country. Allen torpedoed any chances for him to be viable in 2008, and is in danger of losing what should be a safe seat. I don’t particularly see him losing at this point, but it’s going to become a lot closer than it should have been had Allen run a stronger campaign and kept his mouth shut.

Kean is down, but not out. He’s run a strong campaign, he’s a smart guy, and he should win, but New Jersey is as Democratic as they come. No doubt this will be one of the states where the usual Democratic army of the undead rise from their graves on Election Day to pull the level for Democratic candidates. The New Jersey Democratic Party makes the Sopranos look like the Flanders, and until that rat’s nest is cleared no Republican has a chance.

Jim Talent is hanging on for dear life against Claire McCaskill, with Mason-Dixon showing McCaskill up by 1 against Talent. Talent needs to be ahead to counteract the usual voter fraud in St. Louis (another place where hoards of zombies rise to vote Democrat every two years). Talent may yet win, but this one is going to be a nail-biter, and will depend on GOP turnout being great enough to outweigh voter fraud.

Cardin should win in Maryland by the polls, but I’m not so sure the charismatic Michael Steele can’t pull it off. All Steele needs to do is get 25% of the African-American vote, and he wins. With the Democrats having taken Kweisi Mfume out of the race and Cardin’s weakness, that’s quite possible. I think Steele might just pull it off, but it’s going to be down to the wire, and could come down to the distribution of African-American votes and GOP turnout.

If I were to guess at the moment, I’d say that the Republicans very narrowly keep the Senate. Corker’s as sure a bet as there is right now. DeWine and Santorum are out (although I’m still praying for a miracle in Pennsylvania…). Allen, Talent, and Burns are on the fence. Kean and Steele provide the wild cards. The Democrats are going to have to do very well in key races to take the Senate, which remains possible, but less possible than it was before. If Mason-Dixon is right, and both Burns and Chafee are back from the political dead, that means that the Democrats are losing ground. Many of these races will be down to the wire, but the overall trendline looks somewhat positive for the GOP.

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty also notes that ABC has the GOP down by only 6 on the generic ballot question. Now, the generic ballot question is not an accurate predictor of actual electoral results, but it does show that the GOP’s turnout may be as strong as expected, if not stronger. Certainly an energized GOP will help GOP incumbents in red states — I’m looking at Conrad Burns here.

UPDATE: It looks like the GOP surge may be real — Gallup has the Democrats up by 7 in the generic ballot question. Remember that the generic ballot almost always favors the Democrats, and the Democrats have had a double-digit lead for almost this entire electoral cycle. If it’s closing to single-digit territory, that means that the Republicans seem to be closing the sale. The Democrats are still radically out of phase with the American mainstream, so it’s not all that surprising that the American electorate are starting to think about what the consequences of a Democratic takeover would really be.

It’s still going to take every GOP voter getting to the polls, but the GOP’s turnout machine is the best it’s ever been.