Thune 51 – Daschle 49

That’s my prediction for the race for the US Senate in South Dakota. It’s still going to be a close race, but I see much more enthusiasm with the Thune people than I do with the Daschle people. Daschle is running against his own liberal record, and in a state that’s redder than Ted Kennedy’s face after 6PM, that’s the kiss of death. I also think the constant stream of Daschle attack ads have made South Dakota voters sick and tired of him. For more analysis on the South Dakota Senate race, see my piece at Red State.

Daschle Fatigue

Jon Lauck at Daschle v. Thune reports on two new polls that show John Thune leading Tom Daschle in the hotly contested race for the US Senate. The GOP pollster McLaughlin and Fabrizio had Thune up against Daschle 50-45 and now Rassmussen’s latest poll has Thune up 49-46.

Daschle has made a major strategic mistake by inundating the airwaves with negative attack ads. In the 2002 GOP primary, businessman Steve Kirby and former Attorney General Mike Hatch engaged in a vituperative ad war that soured the electorate on the two and ended with a win for the lackluster Mike Rounds. South Dakota voters are getting sick and tired of the constant stream of political ads – hell, I’m getting sick of the constant stream of political ads.

In the end, I think Daschle is wearing out his welcome by trying to paint John Thune, one of the most popular figures in South Dakota politics, as some kind of extremist. That kind of attack may fly in a liberal state like Minnesota, but in redder than red South Dakota it just doesn’t fly at all. Daschle is trying to run from his own record, but he simply cannot hide. All the pork in the world may not be enough to keep him in office. If the latest round of polling is correct, Thune may have enough of a lead that the reservation votes west of the Missouri won’t be enough to sink his candidacy as it did in 2002.

Taking On The Argus Leader

Jon Lauck of Daschle v. Thune catches the Sioux Falls Argus Leader in yet another outright lie. The reactionary way in which editor Randall Beck treats anyone with the temerity to actually criticize him is the typical reaction of the tin-pot dictator who has grown too big for his britches.

The journalist’s first obligation should always be to the truth. Instead, Beck and chief political reporter David Kranz seem to spend more time covering up for their own shoddy fact checking and ingrained biases. The clearly and demonstrably biased coverage of the Argus Leader has made it, and Beck, national laughingstocks.

South Dakota deserves better than a paper whose institutional arrogance has clouded its editorial judgement.

Liveblogging DakotaFest

Jon Lauck of Daschle v. Thune live blogged the Daschle/Thune debate at DakotaFest. Personally, a debate on agricultural issues sounds about as much fun to me as watching paint dry (heresy from someone living in a predominantly agricultural state, I know). Jason van Beek of South Dakota Politics also has some pictures and observations.

From what I’m hearing, I think Thune has a very strong shot at unseating Daschle this year. Daschle has not had a strong opponent for years, with Char Haar in 1992 and Ron Schimdt in 1998 being essentially sacrificial lambs for the GOP. Thune is animated, intelligent, articulate, and popular in the state. Daschle is viewed by many as a partisan who has done very little for the people of South Dakota.

Daschle’s main argument is that he brings “clout” for South Dakota. And exactly what has that “clout” gotten the people of South Dakota? What is Daschle’s contribution to the state? What policies have Daschle gotten implemented recently?

The answer is that Daschle has done nothing but obstruct progress on several key issues from judicial nominations to budgets. The people of South Dakota deserve better than to have a self-aggrandizing partisan in Washington. Tom Daschle isn’t working for South Dakota, and John Thune will. I have the feeling that the people of South Dakota understand that, and that Daschle’s fortunes are quickly waning.