Byron York has a column in NRO that indicates that the GOP has good chances in the mid-year elections. I’m inclined to think that the President’s popularity will help the GOP, but it all depends on the quality of the candidates and their ability to work local issues. Looking at national trends only tells you so much about a midterm election.
It looks like the GOP has a fairly good chance of getting the Senate back. John Thune in South Dakota and Norm Coleman in Minnesota have a good shot at beating the rival Democratic incumbants. South Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole shouldn’t need her husband’s Viagra to stand up against the Democrats in that state, and other GOP Senate candidates are looking good as well.
The House, as always, is harder to predict. With the loss of J.C. Watts the GOP loses a major star, but redistricting may help some of their races. The House is likely to stay under GOP control, but the slim margin may not get much bigger.
As always, anything can change at the drop of hat, but at least it should be a n interesting midterm season that will provide a good political barometer for 2004.