Red State is reporting that GOP pollsters are confident of a Bush win in Ohio and Florida, and that Pennsylvania is tied. My sources (such as they are) are saying the same thing.

Polls are still open, so don’t get cocky, but be confident.

Some better numbers are trickling in. Kerry is ahead by 1 in Florida and Ohio, and Colorado is tied.

Why is this good news for Bush? Because early exit polls tend to show increased Democratic numbers than the final count. At this point in 2000 Gore was also even in Colorado, and Bush won by 9. Early exit polls had Gore up by 3 in Florida, and Bush (narrowly) won that state and would have won by a larger margin had the networks not called the state before the polls in the heavily-Republican panhandle had closed.

In other words, if the only lead Kerry has in Florida and Ohio is 1% now, there’s a good chance that Bush will take those states. The overall electoral situation remains unclear, and will until later this evening. Right now any information we get will be inaccurate and incomplete. In some ways, it’s best to tune everything out for the next two or three hours until real data comes across – then again, political junkies like myself will hardly be able to do that…

I’ve gotten some new info on those bogus exit polls. First of all, they came from the Kerry campaign. Second of all, they’re almost totally made up and based on a massively unrepresentative sample. Finally, when they came out, the stock market took a nosedive.

So much for the markets reacting positively towards a Kerry victory as the Donk talking point from yesterday went…

Drudge is posting some very strong numbers for Kerry in early exit polls – first of all, early exit polls are worthless – they’re mainly weighted towards urban areas where Kerry runs strongest. The fact that this is leaking is probably due to Democratic efforts to suppress Republican turnout. Don’t let that happen – get out that vote!.

These numbers don’t mean a thing. Exit polls at this point are absolutely worthless and the massively pro-Kerry numbers don’t even remotely match reality. Anyone who thinks this portends anything is a fool – just get out and vote.

The Mystery Pollster has more on why these early exit polls don’t mean a thing. If I had to guess, I’d say that these numbers are probably being leaked by the Democrats to reduce GOP turnout.

Not that it matters in the larger picture, but President Bush did very well in Guam, beating Kerry with 17,264 votes to Kerry’s 9,540.

The first batch of pictures from Election 2004 is already up at my Election 2004 gallery. I’ll try to take some more pictures throughout the day and post them when I’m able.

I don’t get The Hill but it looks like Kerry pollster Mark Mellman is predicting a Kerry defeat in today’s issue:

“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.

But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.

I didn’t believe it at first, but here’s Mellman’s article. I think his reasoning is dead-on, and that’s why I concur in his prediction of a Bush win tonight.

If the latest round of tracking polls is an indication, Bush should have a win tonight. CBS has Bush up by 2 against Kerry. Rasmussen has Bush breaking the 50% mark against Kerry. The Battleground Poll (my favorite from 2000 and a very well-done poll) has Bush ahead by 4. The GOP Terrance Group has Bush projected to win with 51.2% of the vote. TIPP also has Bush breaking 50%.

If these polls are correct in showing a last-minute surge for the President, this is very good news for today – we could be looking at Bush getting a small majority for the first time in a long time. Not since 1988 has a President recieved an outright electoral majority.

UPDATE: In absentee and early voting, President Bush goes into the race with a narrow lead in Ohio.

What Pennsylvania and Ohio. If PA goes red, Kerry is sunk. If Ohio stays in the Bush column, and so does Florida, Bush is very likely to get reelected. As I’ve said before, this election will largely come down to 5 states and 11 electoral votes – and I’d give the President a very strong chance at pulling that off.

Remember, get those Republicans to the polls. We can win this, and if it isn’t close the Democratic attempts at cheating won’t be enough to swing this election…