Category: Politics

Behind Romney’s Michigan Victory

Byron York takes a look at why Mitt Romney won Michigan last night:

When rival John McCain said — probably correctly — that some of the state’s lost automotive jobs wouldn’t come back, Romney answered, “Baloney.” He also promised the auto industry $20 billion in federal investment, along with relief from mileage standards and burdensome employee health-care costs. Looked at from the voter’s perspective, one candidate, McCain, offered Michiganders little understanding — the Michigan equivalent of McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies in Iowa — while the other, Romney, promised to throw them a life preserver. The guy with the life preserver won.

The other big factor at play was that turnout was low with Democrats and independents—the people who gave McCain his victory in 2000. McCain needed a certain percentage of the independent vote to turn out last night, and they simply did not. Conservatives chose Romney by a large margin, and McCain didn’t have enough independents and crossover Democrats to make up for his losses there. (There’s also no evidence that that radical left’s plan to “throw” the elections by voting for Romney had any impact on the race—McCain still won crossover voters by significant margins.)

The problem is that while Romney’s campaign now has some steam, what does that mean for him down the road? Is Romney likely to pick up more support in South Carolina, where it looks like the race is between Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson? Will Romney do better on Super Tuesday? It’s hard to say, and the polls are useless as a predictor.

The two definite losers last night were pollsters and John McCain.

Once again, we also see how inaccurate political polling has been this year. The race was supposed to be close, and instead Romney got a convincing 9-point win rather than a squeaker. None of the polls in any of the states have been particularly accurate, it it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting any better in the future. Polling just doesn’t work—people distrust pollsters (especially Republicans), they increasingly use cellular phones rather than landlines, and polls tend to reflect conventional wisdom rather than real political trends. Even political futures markets have been doing poorly. How pollsters can change methodologies and tactics is a question for the future—what matters now is that polls don’t mean much of anything in predicting outcomes in this race.

John McCain also blew an opportunity to remain the frontrunner. His “straight talk” came off as pessimism, which is not politically popular. Even if McCain is right on the substance—big manufacturing is no longer the engine of employment than it was, thanks to competition and technological change, putting it so negatively was guaranteed to hurt him in Michigan. Yes, being a “straight talker” has it’s benefits: but only if you’re willing to give people some hope for the future. Had McCain said something about “taking Michigan into the 21st Century” or the like, he might have done better. McCain’s time as frontrunner may now be a thing of the past.

Looking ahead, the race is still a 5-way tie. It’s quite possible we could have 5 major contests with 5 different winners if Thompson wins South Carolina and Giuliani wins Florida. If so, it’s impossible to predict what the race will look like. Giuliani’s late-state strategy may have been a brilliant political tactic, or it may have been campaign suicide. We probably won’t know until Super Tuesday. This race is incredibly volatile on both sides—a real throwback to the days when party conventions matter. Not only could there be a brokered convention this year, it’s not inconceivable for both conventions to be brokered.

This race isn’t over on either side, and unless there’s a major upset in the dynamics of both, it may not be over after Super Tuesday either.

Thompson/Watts 2008?

Here’s an interesting bit of scuttlebutt circulating around the campaign trail courtesy of Jim Geraghty. There’s talk of a possible ticket of Fred Thompson and former Oklahoma Representative J.C. Watts should Thompson get the nomination. That would be one hell of a ticket: Watts is a charismatic figure who could reach out to new voters. Then again, it’s far too premature to start speculating about the veepstakes when the top of the ticket isn’t close to being decided.

Still, I’d crawl through broken glass to vote for a Thompson/Watts ticket in 2008, and it would be an opportunity for the GOP to broaden their appeal in a way that they’ve not done in a long time.

South Carolina Debate Reactions

Fred just cleaned up with Frank Luntz’s focus group. By a huge shot. 3 people supported him coming in, and a majority of the voters liked him at the end.

Will this matter? Romney did very well in the last New Hampshire debate, and it didn’t help him much. However, with Romney out of South Carolina, that leaves a gap with the conservative vote. Thompson is perfectly situated to take that vote. As I said before, had Fred done this well before I think he could have beaten Romney in Iowa.

John Podhoretz: “Fred Thompson is not only winning this debate, he is giving the most commanding debate performance we’ve seen from any candidate in either party since the beginning of this endless primary process.”

Jim Geraghty, National Review Online: “Winner: Thompson. This performance was so commanding, I wanted his last answer to echo back to the lights in the back of the auditorium, blow out all the lamps and spotlights, for the theme to “the Natural” to play, and for him to trot around the stage in slow motion while sparks showered down in the background.”

Here’s an interesting thought: Fred is working with McCain to split the conservative vote to give McCain a plurality win. I don’t really buy into it, but it’s conceivable. McCain/Thompson would be a ticket that I would love to support.

Erick Erickson, Red State: “Fred Thompson owned this debate. He owned it. He dominated.”

It’s On

Fred Thompson just ripped into Mike Huckabee’s record, and got vigorous applause for it. Did someone wonder where Fred’s fire in the belly is? Because I think he just found it.

Someone has to say it. Mike Huckabee is not a conservative in terms of his view of government. He would be another George W. Bush, but without the resolution on the war. He’s a nice guy to have a beer with, and he’d be a nice pastor. But he’s not POTUS material, and Thompson just forcefully made the case why.

Now Thompson needs to make the case why he’s the best conservative in the race, and if he does that as forcefully as he went after Huckabee he’ll walk away with this debate.

I wasn’t planning on liveblogging tonight, but…

8:39PM: Both Huckabee and Thompson had good lines on Iran. Huck’s line about the “gates of hell” and Thompson’s ad-lib about the Iranians meeting those virgins they’re always pining for was pure red meat for national security conservatives. The difference is that Thompson had more policy detail—which shows that he’s done his homework, but does tend to bog him down a bit.

8:40PM: McCain looks really tired…

8:41PM: Ron Paul brings up the Gulf of Tonkin. Again, he’s the punching bag tonight. Does he not remember the USS Cole?

Thompson’s Iran line: “I think one more step and they would have been meeting those virgins they’ve been looking so forward to seeing.” Classic.

8:43PM: Ron Paul is a whiny little crapweasel. John McCain looks like he’s about ready top jump out of his podium and rip him a new one.

Romney is polished as ever, but it hasn’t helped him yet. Romney is the perfect executive, which just isn’t the same as the perfect Presidential candidate.

8:46PM: McCain has a good line about Iraq, but he still looks so tired. I’d be inclined to support McCain, mainly because he’s been on top of this war, but he’s not inspiring tonight. His stump speech lines are getting old, especially on spending—and I think McCain is 100% dead-on right on the need to control spending.

8:48PM: Giuliani’s answer on Iraq was fine, but he’s also not hitting it tonight. The only two people who are “on” tonight are Fred and Huck, which may mean a lot for the shape of the crucial South Carolina race.

8:51PM: McCain is smacking down Paul, who sounds more and more paranoid and conspiratorial. We supported Osama bin Laden? Bullshit. Why did they bother bringing that raving nutbag into the debate? Unless, of course, it’s to give the serious candidates a convenient punching bag.

8:53PM: Fred just slammed The New York Times on Iraq. Where the hell have you been, Senator? Had you done this well earlier, you’d be leading by 10% right now.

“You can tell the news coming out of Iraq is good, because you read so little about it in the New York Times.” Nice!

What’s nice about Fred tonight is that he has a good applause line followed by some real substantive answers. He’s got energy tonight, and it shows.

Romney mentioned “three dimensional chess.” Is he going for the Trekkie vote? Then again, he had a very sharp answer on Pakistan, mentioning the head of the Pakistani Army.

8:58PM: Now “Mr. Nice Guy” Huckabee is kicking Ron Paul in the ass. He is the punching bag tonight. Small government or not, I’d vote for a dead cow before I’d vote for a nutbag like Ron Paul at this point.

9:00PM: Rudy speaks out on behalf of Israel, followed by Thompson. Thompson goes on the offensive against Huckabee on Pakistan, over the issue of military funding. He needs to go after Huck, and that’s what he’s doing. No good lines for that one, though. He probably should have let it go.

9:03PM: Some quick thoughts: this is Fred’s night. McCain looks tired, Mitt’s moribund, Rudy’s not hitting it, and Ron Paul is a nut. Even Huckabee is just treading water. Fred is going hard after Huckabee on the issues, and it’s putting him on the defensive. Huckabee is not good on the defensive. We’ll see if Fred can keep the pressure on—if so, it will be interesting to see what effect it has at the polls.

9:05PM: Mitt gets a good line: do people want Washington insiders because of Clinton’s NH win? “Nope.” Romney’s positioning himself as the candidate of “change” is his best bet, but the problem is that McCain’s been doing it longer. I think people are getting sick of the word “change” by now—I know I am. Romney’s is talking about his resume, which is impressive, but he’s giving yet another solid second-place performance. That’s not enough for him.

9:07PM: McCain gets a question about being a Washington candidate. He gets a decent line in, then goes back to his stump speech: Iraq, the Boeing deal, etc. However, he does have a great line about the Abrahamoff corruption case. Corruption was a huge issue in 2006, and McCain is doing a good job of positioning himself on it.

9:09PM: Now Huckabee gets attacked for a big-government record. He’s definitely taking flack tonight. He’s not helping himself by talking about raising “hope.” Government doesn’t raise hope, people do. I’m half expecting Fred to take him on over this.

9:10PM: And they give the response to Fred… quelle surprise. Thompson brings up his own record, which is smart. He’s slammed Huck, now it’s time to draw the contests. Fred’s energy is a bit down with this answer, but he’s still solid. He came in tonight with a strategy to contrast himself with Huck on conservative issues, and he’s doing just that. Now, will it work?

9:13PM: Huck gets a response. Oh, and Huck’s slam at Minnesota about bridges was gratuitous. He’d never carry Minnesota, and you’d damn well better think that Minnesota Republicans are not going to like that. This one certainly didn’t.

Rudy’s up. I’ve seen Rudy speak, and he can command a room. Right now, he’s flailing. This questions should be a softball for him, but he’s just not inspiring.

9:16PM: Huck is getting slammed about his line about women “submitting to the servant leadership of her husband.” His answer to this is sold. He brings up his wife, which is nice. The question is very unfair, and shows a lack of what being a “servant leader” is to a Christian. This was designed to be a slam, but Huckabee is walking away with it. You don’t go after Huckabee on a theological issue, because that’s the one thing he’s the most qualified to speak on.

I don’t want Huckabee in the Oval Office, but he’d make a damned fine replacement for Dr. Phil.

9:20PM: Why do they let Ron Paul rant again? God, he’s annoying.

9:22PM: Even The New York Times is giving Fred solid marks tonight.

9:24PM: McCain gets a sharp question on immigration, which is apparently a popular issue. This is McCain’s real Achilles heel, although I don’t think there’s that much daylight between any of the candidates. McCain’s plan is similar to Thompson’s which is similar to Romney’s. But they all still want to try to get traction on this issue.

9:27PM: So is Romney saying we should deport all 12 million illegals? That’s what he seems to say? Exactly how can he pull that off? Attrition is possible, mass deportation would be difficult at best.

9:28PM: Thompson “we need to be a country of high fences and wide gates.” I really like that line. But his answer goes too long.

9:30PM: Ron Paul is almost making sense on immigration. I recall something about stopped clocks… but then he goes to Iraq again. Ugh.

9:32PM: I know immigration is a critical issue, but all this hair-splitting just doesn’t seem to mean much. Huckabee’s answer was as long-winded as Fred’s and less substantive. Rudy’s also flailing here on whether NYC was a “sanctuary city.”

9:35PM: Fred won. I know I’m not unbiased here, but a quick read through of the blog reactions. He just won over the Frank Luntz focus group too.

This is the Fred Thompson that I support.

Ron Paul, Racist?

CNN is picking up on the horribly racist content of Ron Paul’s newsletters, a story first broke by The New Republic earlier this week. The content of these newsletters is appalling, and although the Paul campaign is disavowing them, it’s likely that it will only further marginalize Paul as a candidate:

The controversial newsletters include rants against the Israeli lobby, gays, AIDS victims and Martin Luther King Jr. — described as a “pro-Communist philanderer.” One newsletter, from June 1992, right after the LA riots, says “order was only restored in L.A. when it came time for the blacks to pick up their welfare checks.”

Another says, “The criminals who terrorize our cities — in riots and on every non-riot day — are not exclusively young black males, but they largely are. As children, they are trained to hate whites, to believe that white oppression is responsible for all black ills, to ‘fight the power,’ to steal and loot as much money from the white enemy as possible.”

In some excerpts, the reader may be led to believe the words are indeed from Paul, a resident of Lake Jackson, Texas. In the “Ron Paul Political Report” from October 1992, the writer describes carjacking as the “hip-hop thing to do among the urban youth who play unsuspecting whites like pianos.”

Paul’s excuse is exceedingly lame. On one hand, he wants to argue that he’s not a bigot, racist, or anti-Semite. On the other hand, he wants to argue that that sort of material was published under his own name for over a decade and not once did he bother to see what those newsletters said. In other words, either Ron Paul is a racist, or he’s borrowed his name for racist diatribes for well over 10 years and never bothered to put a stop to it. There’s simply no way to spin this that doesn’t made Paul look bad.

That Paul might have believed what was printed under his name would be horrendous. That he let it be printed is grossly negligent. In either case, it was printed under his name, and he bears responsibility for it.

So Long, Bill

Former NM Governor Bill Richardson will drop out of the race. This isn’t surprising, as he’s not made much progress and is unlikely to do so in the future. Richardson’s foreign policy statements squandered what little credibility he had—and even sucking up to the radical left couldn’t save him. The word has always been that Richardson has really been running to be Hillary’s VP, which is possible. Then again, given his paltry level of support, I wouldn’t be so sure that he has much of a chance of that.

MoDo Says Something Interesting

Maureen Dowd of The New York Times is a terrible columnist, but every once in while she says something that transcends her normal material. Her column on Hillary’s tears is one of those columns. She observes:

There was a poignancy about the moment, seeing Hillary crack with exhaustion from decades of yearning to be the principal rather than the plus-one. But there was a whiff of Nixonian self-pity about her choking up. What was moving her so deeply was her recognition that the country was failing to grasp how much it needs her. In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing.

That’s why I think Hillary’s tears were genuine: it was a moment when Hillary’s massive ego suddenly ran into the real chance of failure. Hillary Clinton is not a woman used to failure. The prospect of being beaten by Barack Obama and losing what is almost certainly her life’s major goal was just too much for her.

I don’t doubt for a second that Senator Clinton’s tears were real—especially not after seeing them in context. If they’re not, she deserves an Academy Award.

No, I’m convinced they were real—and what they say about the character of Hillary Clinton are in themselves more telling than the fact that she’s as human as the rest of us. Maureen Dowd is right: her tears were “weirdly narcissistic” because she honestly believes that it would be a great tragedy for the country for her not to be President. In a way, it might have been better had those tears been fakes after all.

New Hampshire Results

FOX News’ exit poll shows McCain with a 5% lead over Mitt Romney. Interestingly enough, that same exit poll shows that Clinton and Obama are also separated by 5%, with Obama leading 39% to 34%. The early results have been very favorable to Clinton, which would really make this race interesting. If Obama fails to blow out Clinton, that would be a major shot in the arm for the Clinton campaign.

More as the night continues…

UPDATE: 7:06PM – Jim Geraghty is getting some very interesting exit poll results showing a very close race on both the Democratic and Republican sides. This could be a rather interesting night if those exit polls hold true.

UPDATE: 7:14PM – Both CNN and FOX News have called the New Hampshire primary for John McCain. It looks like McCain may beat Romney by a bigger margin that Obama will beat Hillary. That’s an unexpected result.

This puts McCain in the position of being the frontrunner, as Romney’s strategy was based around strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. I don’t think that Romney will bow out, but it seems likely that he’s not going to be able to recover from this. If McCain wins in Michigan, and I think he will, that’s the end of Romney’s campaign.

Conservatives are going to be taking a close look at McCain in the next few weeks, which means that McCain has a lot of reassuring to do on key issues. However, on key issues like Iraq and spending, McCain has been a conservative vanguard. That may be enough for many conservatives, even with McCain’s squishiness on other issues.

Here’s the interesting question: where does Romney’s support go in the aftermath of consecutive loses in Iowa and New Hampshire?

UPDATE: 7:38PM – Clinton still has a slight lead against Obama with 16% of the votes in. I doubt it will last, but if Clinton stays within striking distance of Obama, it will be a very interesting race. This isn’t looking like an Obama blowout at all, which means that Clinton may be following her husband as being the “Comeback Kid” in New Hampshire—remember that Clinton also came in second in New Hampshire when he got that moniker.

UPDATE: 7:43PM – Interestingly, McCain did very well with late deciders, which indicates that Romney’s supposed late gains didn’t actually materialize. That’s interesting, as there were indications that Romney was making a comeback in New Hampshire. If these numbers are accurate, that means that Romney’s efforts to retool his campaign towards the end just didn’t work.

UPDATE: 7:47PM – Romney is speaking – “we got a silver.” Unfortunately for Romney, I just don’t see him coming back from this one. His strategy was based upon winning these early contests, and failing that he doesn’t seem to have much of a fallback strategy.

UPDATE: 7:53PM – This is interesting. While Romney speaks, more numbers are coming in. Hillary Clinton is increasing her lead against Barack Obama. She’s now ahead by 6% with about 23% of the precincts reporting. Anything could change, but it’s looking more and more like the runaway Obama win that was widely predicted isn’t appearing yet.

UPDATE: 8:04PM – Huckabee is speaking, despite taking only third. Meanwhile, the Clinton/Obama race is slowly tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but the margins are closing a bit. Still, even if Obama wins narrowly, Clinton could be the Comeback Queen tonight…

UPDATE: 8:12PM – McCain is speaking. A lot of iPhones in the crowd, which is chanting “Mac is back.” Indeed he is. McCain’s campaign was DOA a few months ago, and now he’s the frontrunner. McCain is emphasizing how he’s the “straight talk” candidate. Right now it’s looking like the predicted blowouts were reversed—McCain has won convincingly against Romney, and Clinton still leads Obama with 36% of the vote counted.

This is looking like a night for dramatic comebacks.

UPDATE: 8:17PM – McCain looks very Presidential tonight. I was an early supporter of Senator McCain in 2000, and the John McCain I’m seeing tonight is the John McCain I liked then. For his faults, I could see Republicans rallying around him—and a McCain/Thompson ticket sounds really good to me.

UPDATE: 8:27PM – The Clinton/Obama race is tightening, with Clinton still ahead by 2% and 42% of the vote counted.

Captain Ed has an interesting theory—that independents crossed over to vote for McCain, thinking Obama would win handily. Only about 20,000 fewer Republicans showed up to vote than Democrats, which gives some credence to that theory.

UPDATE: 8:31PM – The latest FOX News exit poll shows Clinton ahead 39-37%. I’m starting to think that she could win it. Hillary Clinton is the Comeback Queen tonight, as it’s looking like Barack Obama can’t pull off the blowout that everyone was expecting.

UPDATE: 8:36PM – Jim Geraghty has rave reviews for McCain’s speech. McCain actually carried the conservative vote in New Hampshire, and with Churchilian rhetoric like that, it’s not hard to understand why.

Clinton’s lead has increased to 4%—I’m really starting to think that she’s going to win. If she does, prepare for the coronation of the Comeback Queen.

UPDATE: 8:47PM – CNN is saying that the college towns haven’t reported in yet, and that might shift the balance back over to Obama. That could be, but unless Obama suddenly breaks out and wins convincingly, Hillary has still utterly demolished expectations tonight.

UPDATE: 9:00PM – The exit poll results are interesting. Clinton is dominating the female vote by 13%. She’s also winning union voters, lower-imcome voters, and older voters. Obama is winning with younger voters and independents.

UPDATE: 9:07PM – Here’s an interesting thought. The CW is that the college vote will heavily favor Clinton. But will it favor him enough to beat the current spread? Dartmouth has an enrollment of about 6,000—could Obama really pick up enough votes from places like that to beat a roughly 3,000 vote spread? I’m starting to wonder if Obama can really pick up enough votes to beat Hillary’s momentum if demographic trends continue.

UPDATE: 9:12PM – On FOX, Obama’s people are saying that the race could come down to Hanover. I’m not so sure—the exit polls are showing that Obama is not doing as well as predicted in western New Hampshire. The margins keep fluctuating, and if there’s a trend towards Obama, it isn’t showing yet.

Hanover is where Dartmouth is, but again, if it’s a 4,000 vote race, even a strong Obama showing may not be enough for Obama to pull ahead. Michael Barone is running the numbers, and says that Hanover could erase Hillary’s gains. Still, that’s only if Obama trounces Hillary there. If it’s a 60/40 split, Hillary could still eke out a narrow win—and even a narrow win makes Hillary look good.

The bottom line is this: Hillary Clinton defied expectations tonight. Even if she loses by a narrow margin it’s still a victory for her campaign. If she wins, even more so.

UPDATE: 9:19PM – Edwards is speaking. I’m trying to hold my dinner in. What a phony, and a phony who has no chance to win. Thankfully.

UPDATE: 9:33PM – The AP has called the race for Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE: 9:35PM – MSNBC has has also called the race for Hillary Clinton. With a 5,000 vote margin, it’s still possible for Obama to take the lead, but I’m not so sure that it’s likely at this point.

UPDATE: 9:42PM – I’m calling it for Clinton. With a lead of ~6,000 votes, even a strong turnout in Hanover doesn’t seem likely to shift the balance. This is a major achievement for Senator Clinton, and a major loss for the pundits.

This afternoon, the word was about the collapse of Hillary Clinton. Tomorrow it will be about the coronation of the Comeback Queen. What a night!

UPDATE: 9:45PM – Jim Geraghty reminds us all of just how wrong the polls were in this race. Let that be a lesson to those who think that political polls have a great deal of meaning.

UPDATE: 9:47PM – FOX News has called the race for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama is about to speak.

This is bad news for McCain, because his win is already old news.

UPDATE: 9:49PM – Obama’s speech sounds more like a victory speech than a concession speech. Then again, with the race this close, his campaign is hardly over.

UPDATE: 9:56PM – If someone had said that tonight John McCain would beat Romney by a larger margin than the spread between Obama and Clinton I’d think you were nuts. If they had said that Hillary Clinton would beat Obama, I’d definitely think they were crazy. Yet tonight, the crazy people would have been right.

UPDATE: 9:57PM – CNN has also called the race for Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE: 10:00PM – I’m surprised at how vapid Obama’s speech is: I think his schtick is wearing a bit thin. All this talk about “change” and “yes we can” but no substance to any of it. Change to what? Yes we can do what?

I don’t think the Democrats are in a post-partisan mood this year any more than they have been in the last few years. They want to kick ass, and Hillary Clinton is a pro at that.

Down To The Wire In New Hampshire

It’s looking like the action tonight will be on the Republican side. With about an hour before the polls close, Obama is almost certainly to rout Hillary, but the race between McCain and Romney appears to be closer than expected.

If Romney loses tonight, it’s hard to see how his campaign can keep going over the long term. If Romney wins, it could easily revive his campaign and sink that of John McCain. What happens tonight will have some significant impacts on the rest of the GOP race.

The long night of Hillary Clinton looks like it’s going to get a lot longer and a lot darker. She’s being forced into the same strategy as Rudy Giuliani, hoping that Super-Duper Ultra Mega Tuesday will lift her fortunes. It’s a risky strategy, and one that doesn’t seem to be a smart one for either candidate—except that for Rudy, he consciously chose that strategy.

In any event, the unseasonably warm weather has lifted turnout to record levels, with around half a million New Hampshire residents voting tonight.

More analysis tonight as the results come in.

UPDATE: Word is that there is strong turnout in both the Democratic and GOP races.

New Hampshire Predictions

This one won’t be that hard to predict, at least on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton is toast. She needs a miracle to defeat Obama, and the ham-handed way she’s tried to come back have failed. Even though she’s right—even her paltry experience is infinitely more than Obama’s platitudes—the Democrats have embraced Obama’s gauzy rhetoric. Politically, it’s not a bad move. In terms of who can provide the Democrats with real leadership, Obama is a terrible candidate. However, he happens to have the right message at the right time, and that’s enough to win.

On the Republican side, I wouldn’t count Romney out quite yet. He did well in the debates, and McCain’s overtly combative side that we saw this weekend does not suit him well. The independent voters in New Hampshire will likely join the Obama juggernaut, which gives McCain less of an advantage. That being said, I think McCain will win. If McCain wins New Hampshire and Michigan, I don’t see how Romney can continue. Which is too bad, since I’m warming to him the more I hear.

Those two matchups are all that matter in this race. The rest of the candidates aren’t in the game in New Hampshire. Rudy and Fred are not campaigning there. (And Ron Paul isn’t going to get the nomination, even if he will pull some support in New Hampshire.) Edwards is a dead man walking, politically. He didn’t even pull the same support in Iowa he did in 2004. Huckabee will get some play in New Hampshire, but his brand of evangelical identity politics does not play well at all there.

For the Democrats, I don’t see any way that anyone can stop Obama now. It’s possible he could slip up, but the Clinton campaign has come off the rails in a way that I wouldn’t have expected. She’s never had to run a truly competitive race in her life (and neither has Obama), and she doesn’t know what to do. My guess is that Clinton will not go quietly. What’s amazing is that even her well-crafted spin machine can’t save her now.

The Republican field is still wide open. Romney is sinking, but he’s not out. McCain’s star is rising. Huckabee is still in the lead. Thompson is hanging on and betting the farm on a solid performance in South Carolina. Rudy could always come up from behind and surprise everyone if his strategy actually works. At this point a brokered convention isn’t out of the picture. There’s no real momentum yet for one candidate.

The big question is who goes out first. Right now, Romney looks like he’s going to lose steam before the others. If that happens, who gets his support? That’s why this race is so undecided—in a race divided by a few percentage points between the candidates a gain by one can propel someone ahead of the others. If Romney’s support goes to Thompson, Thompson ends up being in a vastly better position. If it goes to Huckabee, he’d be nearly impossible to beat. If it goes to McCain, McCain would have a strong chance of winning. If it gets split, then we’re still in a morass.

New Hampshire is proving to be somewhat anti-climactic, but that could change in the event that Hillary or Mitt stage a comeback. However, it’s looking like the Democratic race is becoming more firmly established just as the Republican one continues to be unsettled.