I don’t get The Hill but it looks like Kerry pollster Mark Mellman is predicting a Kerry defeat in today’s issue:
“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.â€
The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.
But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.
He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.
By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.
I didn’t believe it at first, but here’s Mellman’s article. I think his reasoning is dead-on, and that’s why I concur in his prediction of a Bush win tonight.