Category: Politics

Thune 51 – Daschle 49

That’s my prediction for the race for the US Senate in South Dakota. It’s still going to be a close race, but I see much more enthusiasm with the Thune people than I do with the Daschle people. Daschle is running against his own liberal record, and in a state that’s redder than Ted Kennedy’s face after 6PM, that’s the kiss of death. I also think the constant stream of Daschle attack ads have made South Dakota voters sick and tired of him. For more analysis on the South Dakota Senate race, see my piece at Red State.

Is Pennsylvania In Play?

Quinnipac has Pennsylvania tied with between Bush and Kerry. I was willing to dismiss Gallup’s poll of PA showing Bush ahead by 4 as a fluke, but if these polls are correct, Pennsylvania could be in play.

If PA goes to Bush, Kerry is virtually assured to lose. If PA is trending Bush, Ohio may be following suit thanks to similar demographics. At this stage, Kerry has a lot of places he needs to defend and if Ohio and Florida stay red, I don’t see a Kerry victory being all that likely.

Then again, that doesn’t mean it’s in the bag, which is why every Republican needs to get to the polls tomorrow.

Blog The Vote

Just a notice that tomorrow I’ll be covering Election 2004 live here at Jay Reding.com, but also will be giving live updates on the critical Daschle/Thune race at Red State and The Command Post. I’ll be blogging from various points throughout Sioux Falls and providing as much coverage as I can all day and into the night as the race goes into its last moments and we (hopefully) end up with a winner.

The Polls That (Don’t) Matter

Since everyone is talking about the scientific (or not) polls, what about those indications of the election that aren’t based on calling voters?

First, the serious ones: economist Ray Fair uses his “Fair Model” to predict the outcome of elections based on economic data. Given the economic situation today, the Fair Model predicts are Republican share of 57.70% of the popular vote. Historically Fair’s model is only off by 1.5%. Is this a sign of a GOP landslide? We’ll (hopefully) know tomorrow.

The Iowa Electronic Markets have also picked the winner in the last several elections. This year the IEM predicts a 55% probability of Bush win in the Winner-Takes-All market.

Now, for the slightly less serious ones:

  • The Scholastic Poll of schoolchildren has predicted ever election in the last half century except for 1948 and 1960. This year, Bush trounced Kerry.
  • The winner of the Family Circle cookie contest has become First Lady for the past three elections. This year, Laura Bush’s delicious Oatmeal-Chocolate Chunk whipped Teresa Heinz-Kerry’s Pumpkin Spice Cookies.
  • If the Washington Redskins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbant party will lose the election. The Redskins lost last afternoon to the Green Bay Packers 21-14. (On the other hand, Brett Favre is a Bush supporter… and since the Red Sox won the World Series I figure all bets are off with any kind of sports-related superstitions…)

Those are just ones that I can think of off the top of my head. If you know any other wacky election predictors, leave them in the comments…

T-2 Days

The election is in 3 days, and right now there’s a lot of reasons why Republicans should be cautiously optimistic. Right now if Bush takes Ohio, and it’s possible he will, he wins this race. It’s down to those last few states, and Bush is doing quite well in those races. That doesn’t mean it’s in the bag, which is why it’s absolutely necessary to help the President in this final push so that this country doesn’t end up with a repeat of the disastrous foreign and domestic policies of the Carter and Clinton years.

Remember also that the polls will show this being a close race. Weekend polls undersample Republicans – especially churchgoers who aren’t going to come to the phones during the weekends to spend 20 minutes talking to a pollster. The fact that the polls show Kerry and Bush even when we’re dealing with Republican oversampling should be an indication that this race is very much winnable.

Mason-Dixon was the closest pollster in 2002, getting it right in 22 out of 23 races. They have Bush up in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico. By their polls, Bush has 290 electoral votes at least – we can make that happen by getting every Republican to the polls on Election Day. It will happen because we know what the consequences of a Kerry win are.

Don’t trust the _Star-Tribune_ and _Des Moines Register_ polls. They’re politically motivated and always have been. Kerry is *not* up by 8 in Minnesota and he’s *not* up by 3 in Iowa. Those polls are designed to give the Democrats momentum. They’re not about accuracy or truthfulness. If Republicans get out and vote, Minnesota will go red and Iowa will follow. Even Wisconsin and Michigan can be in play if Republicans work to make it happen.

From what I’ve been hearing, undecideds are breaking for Bush. If you know a voter who is still undecided, now is the time to sit down and have a talk with them. Don’t try to push them, just lay out the facts. Remind them that Osama is still out there. Ask them this: if Osama ended up in Iran, would the UN let us attack? And if they said no, who would you trust to do what’s right? What is more important to the future of the United States: being popular with a group of companies that were in bed with Saddam Hussein or stopping terrorists before they strike? Show them the evidence.

Ask them who they trust more: John Kerry who says that we “outsourced” the capture of Osama bin Laden, or Tommy Franks, the general that actually commanded the mission. Ask them that if John Kerry felt so strongly about this, why did he praise what happened at Tora Bora at the time?

In other words, be Socratic with them. Ask them questions and get them to thinking. Thinking voters are Bush voters. And if they’re the type who have been so permeated with Bush hatred from the cicious left, they’re not going to be persuaded. You can’t argue someone into something rationally they never arrived at by rational means. Politely excuse yourself and move on.

The fate of this nation hangs in the balance. Had America chosen McClellan rather than Lincoln, history would have played out far differently than it did. Had America embraced the isolationism of the America First movement before World War II the world could have been ruined. Should America engage in a route that places symbolic and meaningless alliances with nations who place the façade of “international law” before true justice, we will face another September 11. Now is the time to ensure that America remains steadfast and resolute. Our enemies are waiting to pounce on any sign of indecision – we dare not grant them that wish. For the future of this country, we have an obligation to reelect President Bush. Victory is within our grasp – now let’s make it happen.

The Most Worthless Poll There Is

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune has released its latest Minnesota poll, and as always it’s more an exercise in propaganda rather than polling. The Minnesota Poll shows Kerry ahead with an absolutely improbably 8% lead over the President. The Minnesota Poll has always dramatically favored the Democrats by huge margins, and is deliberately designed to do so every time.

Which leads to the question: how dumb does the _Star-Tribune_ think Democrats are? When they release a poll that consistantly and clearly overstates Democratic performance by obscene margins time and time again, do they honestly think anyone is going to take their results seriously?

Sadly enough, they do, which makes me wonder who the biggest fool is: the lying fool, or the fools that swallow it?